It struck me the other day, while working on an 386 with a 2400 baud modem, that I was working on a machine about as old as the four years we have left until the year 2000. I thought I might give you my Idea of what the computer world will look like then, based on the progress over the last six years.
The 386 in question was a good machine, having a 60 meg drive and a 2 meg memory. It ran at 20 Mhz, fairly fast at the time, and cost about $ 2000.00. Based on the progress to date we now have 486 100 Mhz units with 8 to 12 megs and a 500 meg HD, with printer or a Pentium without printer at about the same price. Based on the logarithmic curve and the rise in chip densities, here is my bet as to the kind of machine and capabilities we will see in the year 2000.
For the same $2000.00 in equivalent value, we should see a machine that will run about 250 Mhz on a dual pipe CPU system. Performance will be in line with the DEC Alpha chip, but it will also support emulation of the Intel 80xx hardware. Chips of this nature are on the horizon. The Cyrix M1 and the Motorola Power PC 604 family are already showing this trend. The Cyrix M1 is particularly interesting as it basically uses the 486 processor internally but RISC-like data handling and splitting to accomplish much faster throughput. Watch out Pentium, you have some real competition now. AMD will also help Intel to lower the price of processor chips, with the next 3 years showing a big movement in 486 clock trippers and quadrupling, in the pipeline. With AMD's merger with NexGen almost a done deal Intel has a lot more competition coming.
The bus will run about 63 Mhz and will be PCI-based. Local Bus will still be found but will be fading fast. Standard memories will come in about 32 megs and cost about what 8 megs do now. This will be needed to operate the multitasking operating system with voice input/output as the normal way we work with the computer. ISA will still be seen but will be there just to insure backward compatibility, maybe one or two slots worth. MCA and EISA will be distant memories, unless IBM uses MCA in some of its work stations, and this is not likely.
For mass storage we will have PCMCIA or (PC Card) ram cards at about 20-40 megs for our Personal Digital Assistant carry around. The hard drive equivalent will be at about 2 gigabytes for about what we pay for a 500 meg drive now. We will also have some sort of magno-optical floppy, at about 20 to 80 megs. Sony is even postulating a unit as high as 140 megs. Also CD-ROM will be the primary way software is distributed. Many programs from a manufacture will be on an inexpensive CD and we will buy the unlock codes to activate the software and manual on the disk.
The machines IO capability will also be rather impressive. PCI is a second level bus standard operating independently or the processor. Each PCI card needs its own interrupt but can control and buffer several devices. As such peripheral support should be much more robust. I would suspect that the designers will find a way to add more interrupts, as that will be the next bottle neck area. Windows 95 Plug and Play is a first attempt at this. However new standards for a fast intelligent serial port are now coming online, we will break the 57.6 to 155.2 K speed limit.
Voice will be the primary way to enter control information, and may prove as useful and unique as the mouse in changing the way we work. I think that the keyboard will still be the primary way to enter data. Output of information will default to screen with voice being the mode when the user is not at the keyboard. The use of printer output will reduce as screen resolution continues to improve. I look for digital television on wide aspect screens to become the norm about the same time and for resolutions to quadruple. HDTV is a great display standard, as 4 useful pictures, or a standard screen and side detail can be shown.
Screens will become able to support Display Postscript (R) so we can lose most of the memory hogging bit maps we are now trying to ship around. Both NeXT Step (TM) and Solaris (TM) have this feature now, it will soon come to the PC world. Displays will continue to advance and many flat panel displays will be seen. As displays go fully digital better compression algorithms will be used to transmit pictures. Video Conference will be the killer application that will drive high speed digital video and a continual upgrade of the Internet for high capacity and high speed transfers. ISDN speeds with compression will bring 256K to 512 K to homes so equipped. This is useful for Mpeg video.
All machines will offer some form of data connection and offer speeds in excess of 56KBS. Much retail activity, banking and commerce will be transported to this form of connection between providers and consumers. If you are not learning about data communications now, run don't walk to the nearest BBS and log on. Computer Training Corp and Computers Today sponsor a free BBS that is easy to use and new user friendly, call us at 663-1100 locally or check with us for numbers in 235 cities for out of area use. Also plan to start learning about the world wide Internet (Yes the Data Superhighway already exists, as an improved road at least). over 20 providers, locally, offers a low cost connection, with every conceivable billing option. 800 numbers are making the internet available country wide, at prices between $5 and $10 from many ISV's.
All computers will be able to transfer information with formatting intact. Products like Adobe Acrobat are steps in that direction. Inter-operability will become the norm and many joint standards will develop. I just hope that as the operating systems grow they include analog to digital interface support and device control capability. We are going to want smart houses and cars and the PC and PDA to be able to talk to one another. A universal infrared interface would be a great way for computers to talk to one another, as it would not use radio spectrum and short range conversations are the norm. I have a laptop like this and it works great.
Networking will go to a new level with systems able to join and leave networks without difficulty, and systems able to recharge and update at the same time. Portable computing will see vast increases in battery life with machines like the HP omnibook showing the way. Power management will be built into all machines and all of them will have sleep modes to conserve power rather than being turned off. Computers turning off will be as rare as people being knocked out. I suspect that the new ``Green'' regulations will have this happen very quickly with mother boards like AMI's new Super Voyager being the norm. Also motherboard design will support many processors, with ZIF sockets to expedite changes.
Case cooling will become very much an issue, with the ``Power User'' machines unable to run with the cooling baffles not in place. Heat reduction demands by consumers will be answered by lowering the operating voltages of parts from current 5 volt technology to first 3.3 volts, and then, ultimately to about 1 volt, the so called sweet spot that a 1.5 volt battery decays to after prolonged use.
I hope that this will give you some insight in what is coming. Naturally any prediction can be off by an order of magnitude, but as order of magnitude changes come on average in an 18 month time span it won't be hard to wait just a little longer for this all to happen. Keep watching this space and Computers Today on Television for regular updates. This months shows include feature coverage from Comdex and specials on computer books.
Write me at graeme@kcmo.com or for the e-mail impaired, fax 816-252-5545 with questions or comments.
Graeme Gibson, C.D.P. is the Service Director of Computer Training Corporation and author of ``How to Build a Clone Computer'' and ``The Subliminal Software Series.'' A former NASA programmer, he has worked in the computer field since 1972. His weekly TV show, "Computers Today," is distributed locally by American Cablevision and Tele-Cable.
copyright Graeme Gibson, C.D.P. 1996
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